The Tech Download: How Russia could profit from Iran war helium supply chain disruption in the chip sector

Helium has emerged as a key focus for the tech sector as industry watchers cast their minds to the implications of a prolonged Iran war.

A byproduct of natural gas production, helium is crucial to semiconductor manufacturing and the world’s second largest supplier has seen its export capacity hamstrung by Iranian strikes. 

Qatar, which owns part of the world’s largest gas field, provided over 30% of the market in 2025, according to S&P Global. That’s a big gap to fill. 

“The shutdown of Qatar helium production due to the US-Iran military conflict has removed roughly a third of global helium supply and shifted the market from oversupplied to undersupplied,” Deutsche Bank analysts said in a note from March 12. 

Prices have surged since, and while many market watchers are optimistic about chipmakers retaining access to the material, a drawn-out conflict will mean helium buyers are forced to scramble to maintain supply chains.

Helium producers in North America — which holds the largest share of the market — are set to benefit from the disruption to Qatar’s supply, but Russia — the third largest helium supplier — could also gain.

Russia-to-China helium exports rose 60% year-on-year in 2025, according to research organization the Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP). 

Prolonged disruption to Qatar helium exports could see a big gap emerge in the Chinese market, with the Middle Eastern country supplying 54% of the country’s helium last year, per CGEP.

While Russian helium is unlikely to become a preferred solution for Western chipmakers due to trade limitations, it could “clear into markets like China, tightening supply elsewhere,” Ralf Gubler, research director for industrial gases and fertilisers at S&P Global Energy, told me.

“If Qatari disruptions persist, Russia is well placed to further expand its role in China’s helium supply mix,” CGEP research scholar Erica Downs wrote in a blog post. 

Russian helium has not been qualified for supply to wafer fabs, but its supply could go to other applications, freeing up qualified supply for the chip sector, Phil Kornbluth, president of Kornbluth Helium Consulting, told me.

Bernstein cited Russian supply growth, alongside a deepening relationship between chipmakers and industrial gas companies and company stockpiles, as reasons why semiconductor production was unlikely to be impacted by helium shortages.

But a prolonged conflict would likely keep prices high and leave some helium buyers racing to diversify sourcing. 

Geopolitics and trade restrictions, alongside supply levels, will no doubt limit Russia’s ability to step into the void Qatar has left as it scrambles to get gas production back up and running, but the pariah state still has markets that are willing to do business with it.

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