H-1B visa selection rate hit a high of 75%, thanks to Trump

After years of steadily worsening odds in the annual H-1B lottery, American businesses in 2026 experienced a notable turnaround in selection rates for high-skilled foreign workers through the visa programme. The approval rate of the highly sought-after visas has jumped to its highest levels in recent years. In several instances, the H-1B visa approval rate has reached 75%, with selections crossing 50% across the board. The turnaround, however, is mostly because of the US President Donald Trump’s immigration policies that re-shaped the H-1B visa programme and slashed the pool of applicants.

According to a report in US news outlet, Bloomberg Law, leading immigration firms and employers have seen significantly higher success rates in the lottery for the speciality occupation visa program.

According to the report, the chances of selection earlier hovered around one in three, roughly 33%. This year, however, several top immigration law firms and service providers reported rates well over 50% across the board.

At business immigration law firm BAL, for instance, some clients achieved selection rates exceeding 60%.

Other immigration law firms, including Ogletree Deakins and Erickson Immigration Group, along with Boundless Immigration, reported improved outcomes for H-1B approvals compared to recent years. For high-wage positions and applicants with master’s degrees, rates climbed above 75% in some cases.

HOW TRUMP ADMIN’S H-1B POLICIES BOOSTED VISA SELECTION RATES

This boost in the approval rates did not happen by chance or accident. Rather, it is the impact of Trump administration policies that have reshaped the H-1B program.

While the administration introduced a new weighted lottery system designed to favour higher-paid and more senior workers, the most powerful factor in raising selection rates was a sharp reduction in the overall pool of applicants. The key driver behind this smaller pool was a $100,000 fee imposed by the White House on all new H-1B workers hired from outside the US.

The steep charge made international recruiting prohibitively expensive for many employers. It effectively halted most new hiring from abroad by universities and hospitals, sectors that had long relied on the H-1B visa program.

Tech companies and other businesses which were subjected to the annual visa cap largely opted out of sponsoring workers from overseas. It’s a group that accounted for about 40% of new H-1B employees in recent years, reported Bloomberg Law.

As a result, the total number of lottery registrations dropped dramatically.

Projections from immigration law firm, Lawfully, cited by Bloomberg Law, estimated between 195,000 and 235,000 applications for the H-1B visa this spring — a decline of up to 43% from the previous year and the lowest figure since the online lottery system launched in 2020. Just three years earlier, registrations for applying for the visa category had surpassed 750,000.

Now, with only 85,000 visas available under the annual cap, the much smaller applicant pool naturally translated into higher selection probabilities. Immigration attorney Kelli Duehning of BAL described the $100,000 fee as “the big delta,” the primary reason for the improved odds. The fee particularly benefited workers already present in the US, whose employers could enter them in the lottery without incurring the extra cost.

The Trump administration also finalised an overhaul of the H-1B lottery process in December.

The previous randomised system was replaced with a weighted framework that gives workers up to four attempts to apply, depending on their wage level. This overhaul prioritises higher-paid and more experienced roles, steering visas toward the most skilled and highly compensated individuals, instead of less experienced and lower-paid freshers.

AI INVESTMENTS, FOCUS ON SENIOR ROLES REDUCING H-1B USAGE IN US TECH SECTOR

Attorneys noted that these policy changes to the H-1B programmer achieved the Trump administration’s aim of favouring senior talent.

Alejandra Zapatero of Erickson Immigration Group was reported by Bloomberg Law as pointing out that her firm’s largest clients saw selection rates ranging from 44% to 71%, with even stronger results for top wage levels.

Additional factors contributed to the smaller pool of the H-1B applicants. According to the report, the tech sector, which has been a major user of the H-1B programme, has slashed hiring rates after making major investments in Artificial Intelligence (AI), and focusing on recruitment for senior roles.

Many employers also adopted a cautious “wait and see” approach amid frequent policy shifts, choosing to sit out this year’s lottery.

For context, multiple lawsuits are challenging the $100,000 fee in federal courts, including the US Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit, the Northern District of California, and the District of Massachusetts. Even if the fee is struck down, proposed regulations from the Labour Department could substantially raise required wage levels for H-1B workers, potentially pushing more employers toward alternatives.

Hence to conclude, Trump’s policies — most notably the fee on new hires from abroad — have successfully reduced the flood of applications, making the H-1B lottery far more predictable and winnable this year for those who participated.

The program now tilts more strongly toward higher-paid, experienced foreign talent, though its long-term direction remains subject to court rulings and further regulatory changes.

– Ends

Tune In