After the US-Iran talks in Islamabad failed, President Donald Trump on Sunday said that, “effective immediately”, the US Navy would prevent ships from passing through the Strait of Hormuz, accusing Iran of extortion. However, soon after, Trump’s sweeping threat to block “any and all” was clarified by the US Central Command (Centcom), who said that the US blockade would be confined to vessels transiting through Iranian ports.
Since the war in the Middle East began on February 28, the Strait of Hormuz, which is a critical trade choke point, has remained largely closed due to the threat of Iranian missiles, drone swarms, and sea mines laid in the waterway. Around 90% of India’s LPG supplies transit via the Strait of Hormuz.
Because of the choke hold, oil and gas supply from the region dropped sharply, driving up energy prices in several countries, including the US. Trump, who had earlier downplayed concerns over the Strait’s closure, has now shifted stance, calling for keeping the passage open for all. As a result, Trump has warned that the US Navy would impose a blockade on ships coming from or sailing to the Iranian ports.
The mocking post by Iran came even as the US’ allies, the UK and France, are jointly leading efforts to form a peaceful multinational coalition aimed at restoring freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.
WHAT IRAN SAID ON HORMUZ BLOCKADE, SURVIVAL
The X handle of the Embassy of Iran in Bulgaria on Monday, without naming Trump, said, “He has threatened to blockade Iran. Just so you know, Iran has enough oil stored in tankers at sea to sell for three months.” The handle is one of Iran’s several wartime mouthpieces.
“Are you sure that you and your allies can endure that period?” the Embassy’s X handle asked further.
This post, coming a day after Trump’s blockade threat, is perhaps aimed at showing that while Iran may be able to endure a blockade of its ports, the bigger question is whether countries dependent on its oil exports could survive for three months.
Since Trump issued the threat, Iranian diplomatic accounts worldwide have mocked the idea of a blockade. Some of those handles said that Tehran still “holds the key” to the Strait of Hormuz.
HOW MUCH OF IRAN’S OIL IS FLOATING ON THE SEA
While it can’t be pinpointed how much oil Iran has got floating in tankers on high seas, its claim is not entirely baseless.
Samir Madani, the co-founder of Tankertrackers.com, on Monday told news agency Associated Press that the monitoring group, using imagery from the European Space Agency’s Copernicus-2 satellite, identified the types of Iranian oil tankers present in and around the Strait of Hormuz.
They identified 10 “Very Large Crude Carrier” supertankers, which can hold two million barrels of oil each, and a Suezmax tanker, which holds 1 million barrels, in the Gulf of Oman as of Sunday. This, Madani said, adds up to 21 million barrels.
Madani said that Iran could be keeping the oil in floating storage to “better regulate exports amid turbulence”.
To put that in context, 21 million barrels is equivalent to about four days of India’s total crude oil consumption.
In March, Iran’s Tasnim news agency reported that daily oil export volumes of Iran exceeded 1.5 million barrels during the month of Ramadan, which was a 50% increase.
While the exact volume of Iranian oil meant for exports might vary from what it has claimed, the timing of the mocking is the key. The statement came after the US said it would block vessels transiting Iran’s ports.
This is strategic signalling, like the Iranians have done throughout the war. While it’s trying to shape market perception, it’s also adding to the anxiety among importers and shippers. Oil markets have reacted repeatedly. Prices have spiked even on the hint of disruption in the Gulf, which in turn would create unease among the countries Iran called the US’ allies.
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